Photo: Collected
Canada is preparing for a possible military attack from the United States, even though the chances of war with the country are extremely slim. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that while the risk is very low, it is the government’s responsibility to consider all possibilities in the changing realities of relations with the United States.
Carney recently told the New York Times that it’s essentially part of risk management. Relations between the two countries have faced a new reality after US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and repeated comments about making Canada the “51st state” of the United States.
In 2025, Trump said the use of military force against Canada was unlikely. He said he would continue to use economic pressure to achieve political goals. This week, the White House also said in a statement to the BBC that Trump had done more to protect the Canadian people than any other president.
However, according to Canadian military experts, the chances of a direct war between the two countries are extremely low. Canada and the United States are members of NATO and have long worked closely to defend North American skies and the Arctic. The two countries conduct joint defense activities under the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and regularly exchange intelligence.
Christopher Coates, a former lieutenant general who served in the Royal Canadian Air Force for 34 years, said he had never considered the possibility of an attack on Canada from US soil in his entire military career. He said such a war would be extremely complex and almost unthinkable given the two countries’ defense cooperation.
However, according to Coats, if the United States ever takes aggressive action, it may not start with a direct military strike. The situation could be created through cyberattacks or other methods of pressure.
Historically, however, the relationship between the United States and Canada has not always been so close. In 1775, American forces captured Montreal and attempted to capture Quebec City. Later, in the War of 1812, American forces attacked various parts of what was then Canada. During that war, British forces retaliated by going to Washington and burning the White House.
Even after World War I, Canada prepared for a possible war, taking into account the growing power of the United States. Canadian military officers then visited American border towns under the guise of tourists, collecting information on bridges, highways, and other important installations.
Even in the current situation, Canada is trying to fill the gap in military preparedness. According to one military model, if the United States attacks, key strategic Canadian positions could be occupied within a week. Canadian forces may then have to resort to guerrilla-style resistance and seek help from allies such as Britain and France.
However, experts say such a war would not be easy for the United States either. Given the long-standing military cooperation with Canada and the mutual relationship between the two countries’ militaries, the political and moral acceptability of such an operation could be questioned even within the US military.
According to Matthew Schmidt, an associate professor of national security at the University of New Haven in Connecticut, if war breaks out, the United States could focus on controlling Canada’s vital natural resources, including oil and minerals, and quickly crippling the country’s political leadership. But he believes that Canadian forces, while outnumbered and outgunned, would be able to mount a resistance.
The threat of a US attack on Canada has also raised concerns among the general public. In a survey conducted by The Ledger in January of this year, more than 30 percent of Canadians said they feared a possible US attack.
Such preparations for Canada are therefore not a direct prediction of war, but rather indicate that potential risks are being incorporated into military planning amid the current uncertainty in relations with the United States.